DAL
NYK
Dallas Mavericks @ New York Knicks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NYKNew York Knicks
68% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Knicks can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Mavericks 23rd (-4.8).
- Simulation: the Knicks win 6,770 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Knicks' offense (116.4 points per 100 possessions, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Mavericks defense that ranks 20th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to the Knicks in our ratings.
- The Knicks' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 5th in the NBA) meets a Mavericks defense that ranks 17th.
Disadvantages Why Knicks may not
- Upset odds: the Mavericks win 3,230 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 11 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Mavericks 13th (0.21), Knicks 25th (0.19).
- Weak spot: the Knicks rank 25th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.19).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYK -5.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.6 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · NYK n/a | DAL 32% · NYK 68% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL +209 · NYK -209 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Knicks 116, Mavericks 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Mavericks by 11 and Knicks by 22.
Side by side
| DAL | NYK | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| -4.8 23 | Net rating | +7.6 3 |
| 108.7 26 | Offensive rating | 116.4 3 |
| 113.5 20 | Defensive rating | 108.7 4 |
| 52.9% 25 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 5 |
| 54.5% 17 | Opponent eFG% | 53.3% 7 |
| 14.0 13 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.7 9 |
| 23.4% 25 | Offensive rebound % | 29.3% 5 |
| 34.4% 26 | 3-point % | 37.5% 3 |
| 105.0 4 | Pace | 99.8 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | 2025-26 | DAL 114 @ NYK 97 | DAL |
| 2025-11-19 | 2025-26 | NYK 113 @ DAL 111 | NYK |
| 2025-03-25 | 2024-25 | DAL 113 @ NYK 128 | NYK |
| 2024-11-27 | 2024-25 | NYK 114 @ DAL 129 | DAL |
| 2024-02-08 | 2023-24 | DAL 122 @ NYK 108 | DAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works