DAL
OKC
Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
69% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), Mavericks 23rd (-4.8).
- Simulation: the Thunder win 6,880 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.2 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Thunder 1st (+10.2), Mavericks 23rd (-5.1).
- The Thunder' offense (115.4 points per 100 possessions, 4th in the NBA) meets a Mavericks defense that ranks 20th.
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Upset odds: the Mavericks win 3,120 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -6.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 226.6 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · OKC n/a | DAL 31% · OKC 69% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL +220 · OKC -220 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Thunder 117, Mavericks 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Mavericks by 10 and Thunder by 23.
Side by side
| DAL | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| -4.8 23 | Net rating | +10.0 1 |
| 108.7 26 | Offensive rating | 115.4 4 |
| 113.5 20 | Defensive rating | 105.5 1 |
| 52.9% 25 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 6 |
| 54.5% 17 | Opponent eFG% | 51.8% 3 |
| 14.0 13 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.5 1 |
| 23.4% 25 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 27 |
| 34.4% 26 | 3-point % | 36.2% 10 |
| 105.0 4 | Pace | 102.2 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 2026-27 | OKC 96 @ DAL 120 | DAL |
| 2026-03-01 | 2025-26 | OKC 100 @ DAL 87 | OKC |
| 2025-12-05 | 2025-26 | DAL 111 @ OKC 132 | OKC |
| 2025-10-27 | 2025-26 | OKC 101 @ DAL 94 | OKC |
| 2025-01-23 | 2024-25 | DAL 121 @ OKC 115 | DAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works