DAL
ORL
Dallas Mavericks @ Orlando Magic
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Mavericks
51% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Mavericks can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Mavericks +2.0, Magic -12.5.
- Simulation: the Mavericks win 5,130 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 0.8 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
- Relative strength: the Mavericks rank 13th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (14.0).
Disadvantages Why Mavericks may not
- Upset odds: the Magic win 4,870 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Magic play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Magic 17th (-0.2), Mavericks 23rd (-4.8).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Magic 13th (14.5), Mavericks 26th (12.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Mavericks lose by 16 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -0.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.7 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · ORL n/a | DAL 51% · ORL 49% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL -105 · ORL +105 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Magic 115, Mavericks 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Mavericks by 17 and Magic by 16.
Side by side
| DAL | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-3 |
| -4.8 23 | Net rating | -0.2 17 |
| 108.7 26 | Offensive rating | 110.4 22 |
| 113.5 20 | Defensive rating | 110.6 9 |
| 52.9% 25 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 28 |
| 54.5% 17 | Opponent eFG% | 53.9% 9 |
| 14.0 13 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.9 11 |
| 23.4% 25 | Offensive rebound % | 24.8% 19 |
| 34.4% 26 | 3-point % | 34.0% 29 |
| 105.0 4 | Pace | 103.1 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | 2025-26 | ORL 138 @ DAL 127 | ORL |
| 2026-03-05 | 2025-26 | DAL 114 @ ORL 115 | ORL |
| 2025-03-27 | 2024-25 | DAL 101 @ ORL 92 | DAL |
| 2024-11-03 | 2024-25 | ORL 85 @ DAL 108 | DAL |
| 2024-01-29 | 2023-24 | ORL 129 @ DAL 131 | DAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works