DAL
PHX
Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Mavericks
51% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Mavericks can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Mavericks +2.0, Suns -14.3.
- Simulation: the Mavericks win 5,060 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.0 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 0.8 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Mavericks 13th (0.21), Suns 28th (0.18).
Disadvantages Why Mavericks may not
- Upset odds: the Suns win 4,940 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Suns play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Suns 4th (16.0), Mavericks 26th (12.8).
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Suns 16th (+0.2), Mavericks 23rd (-4.8).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Suns 7th (28.7%), Mavericks 25th (23.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -0.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.3 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · PHX n/a | DAL 51% · PHX 49% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL -102 · PHX +102 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Suns 115, Mavericks 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Mavericks by 17 and Suns by 17.
Side by side
| DAL | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-2 |
| -4.8 23 | Net rating | +0.2 16 |
| 108.7 26 | Offensive rating | 111.8 17 |
| 113.5 20 | Defensive rating | 111.6 13 |
| 52.9% 25 | Effective FG% | 53.7% 19 |
| 54.5% 17 | Opponent eFG% | 54.3% 16 |
| 14.0 13 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 19 |
| 23.4% 25 | Offensive rebound % | 28.7% 7 |
| 34.4% 26 | 3-point % | 35.9% 13 |
| 105.0 4 | Pace | 100.3 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 2025-26 | DAL 107 @ PHX 112 | PHX |
| 2026-02-10 | 2025-26 | DAL 111 @ PHX 120 | PHX |
| 2025-11-12 | 2025-26 | PHX 123 @ DAL 114 | PHX |
| 2025-03-09 | 2024-25 | PHX 125 @ DAL 116 | PHX |
| 2024-12-27 | 2024-25 | DAL 98 @ PHX 89 | DAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works