DAL
POR
Dallas Mavericks @ Portland Trail Blazers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PORPortland Trail Blazers
59% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Trail Blazers can win
- Simulation: the Trail Blazers win 5,860 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Trail Blazers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Trail Blazers +8.8, Mavericks +2.0.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Trail Blazers 2nd (30.9%), Mavericks 25th (23.4%).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Trail Blazers 7th (15.0), Mavericks 26th (12.8).
Disadvantages Why Trail Blazers may not
- Upset odds: the Mavericks win 4,140 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Mavericks 13th (14.0), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Trail Blazers lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: the Trail Blazers rank 30th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (16.3).
- Weak spot: the Trail Blazers rank 28th of 30 in three-point shooting (34.1%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | POR -2.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.1 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · POR n/a | DAL 41% · POR 59% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL +141 · POR -141 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Trail Blazers 118, Mavericks 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Mavericks by 13 and Trail Blazers by 20.
Side by side
| DAL | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| -4.8 23 | Net rating | -0.5 18 |
| 108.7 26 | Offensive rating | 110.9 21 |
| 113.5 20 | Defensive rating | 111.4 12 |
| 52.9% 25 | Effective FG% | 53.2% 24 |
| 54.5% 17 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 12 |
| 14.0 13 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.3 30 |
| 23.4% 25 | Offensive rebound % | 30.9% 2 |
| 34.4% 26 | 3-point % | 34.1% 28 |
| 105.0 4 | Pace | 103.7 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | 2025-26 | DAL 100 @ POR 93 | DAL |
| 2025-12-29 | 2025-26 | DAL 122 @ POR 125 | POR |
| 2025-11-16 | 2025-26 | POR 133 @ DAL 138 | DAL |
| 2025-01-09 | 2024-25 | POR 111 @ DAL 117 | DAL |
| 2024-12-28 | 2024-25 | DAL 122 @ POR 126 | POR |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works