DAL

Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

SAS

Our pick

SASSan Antonio Spurs

72% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

AZMango model

DAL 28%SAS 72%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Spurs can win

Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Mavericks 23rd (-4.8).
Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.0 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
Simulation: the Spurs win 7,210 of 10,000 simulated games.
Point differential per game: Spurs 2nd (+7.9), Mavericks 23rd (-5.1).
The Spurs' offense (115.2 points per 100 possessions, 5th in the NBA) meets a Mavericks defense that ranks 20th.

Disadvantages Why Spurs may not

Upset odds: the Mavericks win 2,790 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 9 or more.
Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	SAS -7.7
Total points	n/a	229.8
Win chance	DAL n/a · SAS n/a	DAL 28% · SAS 72%
Fair moneyline		DAL +258 · SAS -258

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Spurs 119, Mavericks 111.
80% of simulations land between Mavericks by 9 and Spurs by 24.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

DAL		SAS
3-2	Record	3-2
-4.8 23	Net rating	+7.7 2
108.7 26	Offensive rating	115.2 5
113.5 20	Defensive rating	107.5 3
52.9% 25	Effective FG%	55.1% 8
54.5% 17	Opponent eFG%	51.4% 2
14.0 13	Turnovers per 100	13.3 6
23.4% 25	Offensive rebound %	26.4% 10
34.4% 26	3-point %	35.8% 14
105.0 4	Pace	102.5 15

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-10-24	2026-27	SAS 122 @ DAL 106	SAS
2026-04-10	2025-26	DAL 120 @ SAS 139	SAS
2026-02-07	2025-26	DAL 125 @ SAS 138	SAS
2026-02-05	2025-26	SAS 135 @ DAL 123	SAS
2025-10-22	2025-26	SAS 125 @ DAL 92	SAS

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

DAL

Cooper Flagg F

21.3 pts, 6.6 reb, 4.6 ast in 33.4 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 3 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.4%)

DAL

Kyrie Irving G

18 pts, 3.2 reb, 3.8 ast in 27.2 min, 49% FG

vs a defense ranked 3 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.4%)

DAL

Naji Marshall F

15.2 pts, 4.6 reb, 3.4 ast in 29.4 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 3 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.4%)

SAS

Victor Wembanyama F

24.6 pts, 11.3 reb, 3 ast in 30.5 min, 50% FG

vs a defense ranked 20 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.5%)

SAS

De'Aaron Fox G

17.7 pts, 3.8 reb, 6.2 ast in 31.6 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 20 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.5%)

SAS

Stephon Castle G

17 pts, 5.3 reb, 7 ast in 30.8 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 20 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.5%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Spurs beat the Mavericks 122-106 on the road (2026-10-24). The difference: they committed 9 fewer turnovers (12 to 21) and they made 15 threes to 11, a 12-point swing.