DAL
UTA
Dallas Mavericks @ Utah Jazz
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Mavericks
60% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Mavericks can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.2 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Mavericks +2.0, Jazz -7.8.
- Simulation: the Mavericks win 5,950 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.5 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
- The Mavericks' shooting (52.9% eFG%, 25th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 30th.
Disadvantages Why Mavericks may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 4,050 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Jazz play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Jazz 12th (26.3%), Mavericks 25th (23.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Mavericks lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: the Mavericks rank 26th of 30 in offense, points per 100 possessions (108.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -3 |
| Total points | n/a | 235.4 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · UTA n/a | DAL 60% · UTA 40% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL -147 · UTA +147 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Jazz 116, Mavericks 120.
- 80% of simulations land between Mavericks by 20 and Jazz by 14.
Side by side
| DAL | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| -4.8 23 | Net rating | -7.9 27 |
| 108.7 26 | Offensive rating | 111.1 20 |
| 113.5 20 | Defensive rating | 119.0 29 |
| 52.9% 25 | Effective FG% | 53.6% 20 |
| 54.5% 17 | Opponent eFG% | 57.6% 30 |
| 14.0 13 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.8 21 |
| 23.4% 25 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 12 |
| 34.4% 26 | 3-point % | 34.4% 24 |
| 105.0 4 | Pace | 105.6 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | 2025-26 | UTA 120 @ DAL 138 | DAL |
| 2026-01-15 | 2025-26 | UTA 122 @ DAL 144 | DAL |
| 2026-01-08 | 2025-26 | DAL 114 @ UTA 116 | UTA |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-26 | DAL 133 @ UTA 140 | UTA |
| 2024-11-30 | 2024-25 | DAL 106 @ UTA 94 | DAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works