DAL
WAS
Dallas Mavericks @ Washington Wizards
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Mavericks
58% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Mavericks can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.0 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Mavericks win 5,830 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.7 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Mavericks 23rd (-4.8), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Mavericks 13th (14.0), Wizards 23rd (15.0).
Disadvantages Why Mavericks may not
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 4,170 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Wizards play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Mavericks lose by 14 or more.
- Three-point shooting: Wizards 18th (35.5%), Mavericks 26th (34.4%).
- Weak spot: the Mavericks rank 26th of 30 in offense, points per 100 possessions (108.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -2.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.4 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · WAS n/a | DAL 58% · WAS 42% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL -140 · WAS +140 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Wizards 116, Mavericks 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Mavericks by 20 and Wizards by 14.
Side by side
| DAL | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| -4.8 23 | Net rating | -10.9 30 |
| 108.7 26 | Offensive rating | 108.2 29 |
| 113.5 20 | Defensive rating | 119.2 30 |
| 52.9% 25 | Effective FG% | 53.5% 21 |
| 54.5% 17 | Opponent eFG% | 55.9% 27 |
| 14.0 13 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 23 |
| 23.4% 25 | Offensive rebound % | 23.9% 22 |
| 34.4% 26 | 3-point % | 35.5% 18 |
| 105.0 4 | Pace | 104.3 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | 2025-26 | DAL 111 @ WAS 105 | DAL |
| 2025-10-24 | 2025-26 | WAS 117 @ DAL 107 | WAS |
| 2025-01-27 | 2024-25 | WAS 108 @ DAL 130 | DAL |
| 2024-12-05 | 2024-25 | DAL 137 @ WAS 101 | DAL |
| 2024-02-12 | 2023-24 | WAS 104 @ DAL 112 | DAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works