DEN

Denver Nuggets @ Atlanta Hawks

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

ATL

Our pick

ATLAtlanta Hawks

59% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

DEN 41%ATL 59%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Hawks can win

Simulation: the Hawks win 5,860 of 10,000 simulated games.
Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Hawks +4.2, Nuggets -3.2.
Home court: the Hawks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Hawks 6th (15.4), Nuggets 30th (11.9).
The Hawks' offense (112.5 points per 100 possessions, 14th in the NBA) meets a Nuggets defense that ranks 21st.

Disadvantages Why Hawks may not

The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Hawks defense that ranks 19th.
Upset odds: the Nuggets win 4,140 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Hawks defense that ranks 11th.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Nuggets 7th (+4.1), Hawks 14th (+1.2).
Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Nuggets 4th (0.24), Hawks 27th (0.18).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	ATL -2.7
Total points	n/a	233.2
Win chance	DEN n/a · ATL n/a	DEN 41% · ATL 59%
Fair moneyline		DEN +141 · ATL -141

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Hawks 118, Nuggets 115.
80% of simulations land between Nuggets by 14 and Hawks by 19.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Plain links. We are not paid for them and take no bets.

Side by side

DEN		ATL
2-2	Record	3-3
+4.1 7	Net rating	+1.2 14
118.2 1	Offensive rating	112.5 14
114.1 21	Defensive rating	111.3 11
56.9% 2	Effective FG%	55.0% 11
54.1% 13	Opponent eFG%	54.6% 19
12.7 3	Turnovers per 100	13.6 7
23.3% 28	Offensive rebound %	24.3% 20
38.8% 1	3-point %	36.7% 7
102.1 20	Pace	104.3 6

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-01-09	2025-26	ATL 110 @ DEN 87	ATL
2025-12-05	2025-26	DEN 134 @ ATL 133	DEN
2025-01-01	2024-25	ATL 120 @ DEN 139	DEN
2024-12-08	2024-25	DEN 141 @ ATL 111	DEN
2024-04-06	2023-24	ATL 110 @ DEN 142	DEN

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

DEN

Nikola Jokic C

27.2 pts, 12.8 reb, 10.5 ast in 35.3 min, 55% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

DEN

Jamal Murray G

25.1 pts, 4.5 reb, 7 ast in 35.8 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

DEN

Aaron Gordon F

15.5 pts, 5.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 28.2 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

ATL

Jalen Johnson F

22.1 pts, 10 reb, 7.7 ast in 35.1 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

ATL

Nickeil Alexander-Walker G

20.3 pts, 3.4 reb, 3.5 ast in 33.3 min, 45% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

ATL

Dyson Daniels G

11.5 pts, 6.7 reb, 5.8 ast in 32.5 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Hawks beat the Nuggets 110-87 on the road (2026-01-09). The difference: they committed 13 fewer turnovers (6 to 19) and they shot 57% effective field goal percentage to 49%. Jalen Johnson led the Hawks with 29 points.