DEN

Denver Nuggets @ Boston Celtics

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

BOS

Our pick

BOSBoston Celtics

64% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

DEN 36%BOS 64%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Celtics can win

Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Celtics +8.0, Nuggets -3.2.
The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Nuggets defense that ranks 21st.
Simulation: the Celtics win 6,400 of 10,000 simulated games.
Home court: the Celtics play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.1 points to the Celtics in our ratings.

Disadvantages Why Celtics may not

Upset odds: the Nuggets win 3,600 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Nuggets 4th (0.24), Celtics 29th (0.17).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 12 or more.
Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
Weak spot: the Celtics rank 27th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.8).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	BOS -4.8
Total points	n/a	227.5
Win chance	DEN n/a · BOS n/a	DEN 36% · BOS 64%
Fair moneyline		DEN +178 · BOS -178

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Celtics 117, Nuggets 112.
80% of simulations land between Nuggets by 12 and Celtics by 22.

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Side by side

DEN		BOS
2-2	Record	3-1
+4.1 7	Net rating	+7.5 4
118.2 1	Offensive rating	116.6 2
114.1 21	Defensive rating	109.1 5
56.9% 2	Effective FG%	55.1% 10
54.1% 13	Opponent eFG%	52.2% 4
12.7 3	Turnovers per 100	12.7 2
23.3% 28	Offensive rebound %	29.0% 6
38.8% 1	3-point %	36.5% 8
102.1 20	Pace	98.1 30

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-02-25	2025-26	BOS 84 @ DEN 103	DEN
2026-01-07	2025-26	DEN 114 @ BOS 110	DEN
2025-03-02	2024-25	DEN 103 @ BOS 110	BOS
2025-01-07	2024-25	BOS 118 @ DEN 106	BOS
2024-03-07	2023-24	BOS 109 @ DEN 115	DEN

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

DEN

Nikola Jokic C

27.2 pts, 12.8 reb, 10.5 ast in 35.3 min, 55% FG

vs a defense ranked 5 of 30 (opponent eFG% 52.2%)

DEN

Jamal Murray G

25.1 pts, 4.5 reb, 7 ast in 35.8 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 5 of 30 (opponent eFG% 52.2%)

DEN

Aaron Gordon F

15.5 pts, 5.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 28.2 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 5 of 30 (opponent eFG% 52.2%)

BOS

Jayson Tatum F

23.1 pts, 9.6 reb, 6.1 ast in 34 min, 43% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

BOS

Paul George F

22.2 pts, 6 reb, 3.5 ast in 31.5 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

BOS

Payton Pritchard G

16.7 pts, 3.8 reb, 5.1 ast in 32.2 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Nuggets beat the Celtics 103-84 at home (2026-02-25). The difference: they shot 50% effective field goal percentage to 42% and they committed 5 fewer turnovers (9 to 14). Nikola Jokic led the Nuggets with 30 points.