DEN
CHA
Denver Nuggets @ Charlotte Hornets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CHACharlotte Hornets
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hornets can win
- The Hornets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 7th in the NBA) meets a Nuggets defense that ranks 21st.
- Home court: the Hornets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Hornets 4th (30.5%), Nuggets 28th (23.3%).
- Simulation: the Hornets win 5,170 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Body clock: the Nuggets cross 2 time zones.
Disadvantages Why Hornets may not
- Upset odds: the Nuggets win 4,830 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Nuggets 3rd (12.7), Hornets 28th (15.6).
- The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Hornets defense that ranks 10th.
- The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Hornets defense that ranks 10th.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.0 points to the Nuggets in our ratings.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHA -0.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 223.4 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · CHA n/a | DEN 48% · CHA 52% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN +107 · CHA -107 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hornets 112, Nuggets 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Nuggets by 16 and Hornets by 17.
Side by side
| DEN | CHA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| +4.1 7 | Net rating | +3.7 8 |
| 118.2 1 | Offensive rating | 114.6 7 |
| 114.1 21 | Defensive rating | 110.9 10 |
| 56.9% 2 | Effective FG% | 54.7% 13 |
| 54.1% 13 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 10 |
| 12.7 3 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.6 28 |
| 23.3% 28 | Offensive rebound % | 30.5% 4 |
| 38.8% 1 | 3-point % | 37.2% 4 |
| 102.1 20 | Pace | 100.3 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | 2025-26 | CHA 110 @ DEN 87 | CHA |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025-26 | DEN 115 @ CHA 106 | DEN |
| 2025-02-20 | 2024-25 | CHA 115 @ DEN 129 | DEN |
| 2025-02-01 | 2024-25 | DEN 107 @ CHA 104 | DEN |
| 2024-01-01 | 2023-24 | CHA 93 @ DEN 111 | DEN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works