DEN
CHI
Denver Nuggets @ Chicago Bulls
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Nuggets
64% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Nuggets can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.0 points to the Nuggets in our ratings.
- The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Bulls defense that ranks 25th.
- The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Bulls defense that ranks 21st.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Nuggets -3.2, Bulls -16.2.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Nuggets 7th (+4.1), Bulls 24th (-5.5).
Disadvantages Why Nuggets may not
- Home court: the Bulls play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 3,600 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nuggets lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Nuggets rank 30th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (11.9).
- Weak spot: the Nuggets rank 28th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -4.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 238.8 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · CHI n/a | DEN 64% · CHI 36% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN -178 · CHI +178 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bulls 117, Nuggets 122.
- 80% of simulations land between Nuggets by 21 and Bulls by 12.
Side by side
| DEN | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| +4.1 7 | Net rating | -5.5 24 |
| 118.2 1 | Offensive rating | 110.1 25 |
| 114.1 21 | Defensive rating | 115.6 25 |
| 56.9% 2 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 14 |
| 54.1% 13 | Opponent eFG% | 55.3% 21 |
| 12.7 3 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 17 |
| 23.3% 28 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 26 |
| 38.8% 1 | 3-point % | 35.0% 22 |
| 102.1 20 | Pace | 105.5 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | 2025-26 | DEN 136 @ CHI 120 | DEN |
| 2025-11-17 | 2025-26 | CHI 130 @ DEN 127 | CHI |
| 2025-03-24 | 2024-25 | CHI 129 @ DEN 119 | CHI |
| 2025-01-27 | 2024-25 | DEN 121 @ CHI 129 | CHI |
| 2023-12-12 | 2023-24 | DEN 114 @ CHI 106 | DEN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works