DEN

Denver Nuggets @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

CLE

Our pick

CLECleveland Cavaliers

57% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

DEN 43%CLE 57%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Cavaliers can win

Home court: the Cavaliers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Simulation: the Cavaliers win 5,660 of 10,000 simulated games.
The Cavaliers' offense (114.5 points per 100 possessions, 9th in the NBA) meets a Nuggets defense that ranks 21st.
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Cavaliers 10th (14.7), Nuggets 30th (11.9).
Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Cavaliers 8th (27.0%), Nuggets 28th (23.3%).

Disadvantages Why Cavaliers may not

The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Cavaliers defense that ranks 15th.
Upset odds: the Nuggets win 4,340 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Cavaliers defense that ranks 15th.
Three-point shooting: Nuggets 1st (38.8%), Cavaliers 19th (35.4%).
Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Nuggets 3rd (12.7), Cavaliers 15th (14.2).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	CLE -2.1
Total points	n/a	231.7
Win chance	DEN n/a · CLE n/a	DEN 43% · CLE 57%
Fair moneyline		DEN +130 · CLE -130

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Cavaliers 117, Nuggets 115.
80% of simulations land between Nuggets by 14 and Cavaliers by 19.

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Side by side

DEN		CLE
2-2	Record	3-2
+4.1 7	Net rating	+2.7 10
118.2 1	Offensive rating	114.5 9
114.1 21	Defensive rating	111.8 15
56.9% 2	Effective FG%	55.5% 7
54.1% 13	Opponent eFG%	54.2% 15
12.7 3	Turnovers per 100	14.2 15
23.3% 28	Offensive rebound %	27.0% 8
38.8% 1	3-point %	35.4% 19
102.1 20	Pace	102.6 14

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-02-09	2025-26	CLE 119 @ DEN 117	CLE
2026-01-02	2025-26	DEN 108 @ CLE 113	CLE
2024-12-27	2024-25	CLE 149 @ DEN 135	CLE
2024-12-05	2024-25	DEN 114 @ CLE 126	CLE
2024-03-31	2023-24	CLE 101 @ DEN 130	DEN

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

DEN

Nikola Jokic C

27.2 pts, 12.8 reb, 10.5 ast in 35.3 min, 55% FG

vs a defense ranked 15 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

DEN

Jamal Murray G

25.1 pts, 4.5 reb, 7 ast in 35.8 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 15 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

DEN

Aaron Gordon F

15.5 pts, 5.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 28.2 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 15 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

CLE

Donovan Mitchell G

27.3 pts, 4.6 reb, 5.1 ast in 34 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

CLE

Evan Mobley C

17.9 pts, 8.8 reb, 3.7 ast in 32.8 min, 54% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

CLE

James Harden G

19.7 pts, 4.9 reb, 6.7 ast in 35.2 min, 43% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Cavaliers beat the Nuggets 119-117 on the road (2026-02-09). The box score was close to even; it came down to the last few possessions. Donovan Mitchell led the Cavaliers with 32 points.