DEN

Denver Nuggets @ Detroit Pistons

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

DET

Our pick

DETDetroit Pistons

66% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

AZMango model

DEN 34%DET 66%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Pistons can win

Simulation: the Pistons win 6,630 of 10,000 simulated games.
Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pistons +6.4, Nuggets -3.2.
Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.8 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
Home court: the Pistons play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Pistons 2nd (16.3), Nuggets 30th (11.9).

Disadvantages Why Pistons may not

Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Nuggets 3rd (12.7), Pistons 24th (15.0).
Upset odds: the Nuggets win 3,370 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Three-point shooting: Nuggets 1st (38.8%), Pistons 15th (35.8%).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 11 or more.
Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	DET -6
Total points	n/a	224.3
Win chance	DEN n/a · DET n/a	DEN 34% · DET 66%
Fair moneyline		DEN +197 · DET -197

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Pistons 115, Nuggets 109.
80% of simulations land between Nuggets by 11 and Pistons by 22.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

DEN		DET
2-2	Record	4-1
+4.1 7	Net rating	+7.0 5
118.2 1	Offensive rating	113.2 12
114.1 21	Defensive rating	106.2 2
56.9% 2	Effective FG%	54.2% 16
54.1% 13	Opponent eFG%	51.4% 1
12.7 3	Turnovers per 100	15.0 24
23.3% 28	Offensive rebound %	30.8% 3
38.8% 1	3-point %	35.8% 15
102.1 20	Pace	102.1 19

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-02-03	2025-26	DEN 121 @ DET 124	DET
2026-01-27	2025-26	DET 109 @ DEN 107	DET
2025-02-28	2024-25	DEN 134 @ DET 119	DEN
2024-12-28	2024-25	DET 121 @ DEN 134	DEN
2024-01-07	2023-24	DET 114 @ DEN 131	DEN

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

DEN

Nikola Jokic C

27.2 pts, 12.8 reb, 10.5 ast in 35.3 min, 55% FG

vs a defense ranked 2 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.4%)

DEN

Jamal Murray G

25.1 pts, 4.5 reb, 7 ast in 35.8 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 2 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.4%)

DEN

Aaron Gordon F

15.5 pts, 5.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 28.2 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 2 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.4%)

DET

Cade Cunningham G

24.6 pts, 5.5 reb, 9.4 ast in 35.1 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

DET

Jalen Duren C

17.8 pts, 10.1 reb, 2 ast in 28.3 min, 63% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

DET

Tobias Harris F

14.1 pts, 5.5 reb, 2.3 ast in 29 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Pistons beat the Nuggets 124-121 at home (2026-02-03). The box score was close to even; it came down to the last few possessions. Cade Cunningham led the Pistons with 29 points.