DEN

Denver Nuggets @ Houston Rockets

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

HOU

Our pick

HOUHouston Rockets

72% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

AZMango model

DEN 28%HOU 72%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Rockets can win

Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Nuggets -3.2.
Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.7 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
Simulation: the Rockets win 7,230 of 10,000 simulated games.
The Rockets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 8th in the NBA) meets a Nuggets defense that ranks 21st.
Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.1 points to the Rockets in our ratings.

Disadvantages Why Rockets may not

Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Nuggets 3rd (12.7), Rockets 26th (15.4).
Upset odds: the Nuggets win 2,770 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 9 or more.
The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Rockets defense that ranks 6th.
Three-point shooting: Nuggets 1st (38.8%), Rockets 11th (36.2%).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	HOU -7.6
Total points	n/a	227.6
Win chance	DEN n/a · HOU n/a	DEN 28% · HOU 72%
Fair moneyline		DEN +261 · HOU -261

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Rockets 118, Nuggets 110.
80% of simulations land between Nuggets by 9 and Rockets by 24.

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Side by side

DEN		HOU
2-2	Record	5-0
+4.1 7	Net rating	+5.2 6
118.2 1	Offensive rating	114.6 8
114.1 21	Defensive rating	109.4 6
56.9% 2	Effective FG%	54.0% 18
54.1% 13	Opponent eFG%	53.0% 6
12.7 3	Turnovers per 100	15.4 26
23.3% 28	Offensive rebound %	34.3% 1
38.8% 1	3-point %	36.2% 11
102.1 20	Pace	100.0 27

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-03-11	2025-26	HOU 93 @ DEN 129	DEN
2025-12-20	2025-26	HOU 115 @ DEN 101	HOU
2025-12-15	2025-26	HOU 125 @ DEN 128	DEN
2025-11-21	2025-26	DEN 112 @ HOU 109	DEN
2025-04-13	2024-25	DEN 126 @ HOU 111	DEN

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

DEN

Nikola Jokic C

27.2 pts, 12.8 reb, 10.5 ast in 35.3 min, 55% FG

vs a defense ranked 6 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.0%)

DEN

Jamal Murray G

25.1 pts, 4.5 reb, 7 ast in 35.8 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 6 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.0%)

DEN

Aaron Gordon F

15.5 pts, 5.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 28.2 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 6 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.0%)

HOU

Kevin Durant F

25.7 pts, 5.5 reb, 4.7 ast in 36.4 min, 52% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

HOU

Alperen Sengun C

20.6 pts, 9 reb, 6.1 ast in 33.8 min, 52% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

HOU

Amen Thompson G

18.3 pts, 7.7 reb, 5.3 ast in 37.6 min, 53% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Nuggets beat the Rockets 129-93 at home (2026-03-11). The difference: they shot 65% effective field goal percentage to 45% and they made 17 threes to 4, a 39-point swing. Jamal Murray led the Nuggets with 30 points.