DEN
IND
Denver Nuggets @ Indiana Pacers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Nuggets
56% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Nuggets can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Nuggets 7th (+4.1), Pacers 26th (-7.2).
- The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 22nd.
- The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 24th.
- Point differential per game: Nuggets 7th (+4.2), Pacers 26th (-7.5).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.3 points to the Nuggets in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Nuggets may not
- Upset odds: the Pacers win 4,430 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Pacers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nuggets lose by 15 or more.
- Body clock: the Nuggets cross 2 time zones.
- Weak spot: the Nuggets rank 30th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (11.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -1.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.9 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · IND n/a | DEN 56% · IND 44% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN -126 · IND +126 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pacers 115, Nuggets 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Nuggets by 18 and Pacers by 15.
Side by side
| DEN | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| +4.1 7 | Net rating | -7.2 26 |
| 118.2 1 | Offensive rating | 108.4 27 |
| 114.1 21 | Defensive rating | 115.6 24 |
| 56.9% 2 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 22 |
| 54.1% 13 | Opponent eFG% | 55.4% 22 |
| 12.7 3 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 12 |
| 23.3% 28 | Offensive rebound % | 21.8% 29 |
| 38.8% 1 | 3-point % | 35.3% 20 |
| 102.1 20 | Pace | 103.9 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-03 | 2025-26 | DEN 135 @ IND 120 | DEN |
| 2025-11-08 | 2025-26 | IND 100 @ DEN 117 | DEN |
| 2025-04-06 | 2024-25 | IND 125 @ DEN 120 | IND |
| 2025-02-24 | 2024-25 | DEN 125 @ IND 116 | DEN |
| 2024-01-23 | 2023-24 | DEN 114 @ IND 109 | DEN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works