DEN

Denver Nuggets @ LA Clippers

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

LAC

Our pick

LACLA Clippers

54% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

AZMango model

DEN 46%LAC 54%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Clippers can win

Home court: the Clippers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Simulation: the Clippers win 5,420 of 10,000 simulated games.
The Clippers' shooting (55.9% eFG%, 4th in the NBA) meets a Nuggets defense that ranks 13th.
The Clippers' offense (114.0 points per 100 possessions, 10th in the NBA) meets a Nuggets defense that ranks 21st.
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Clippers 14th (14.5), Nuggets 30th (11.9).

Disadvantages Why Clippers may not

The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Clippers defense that ranks 18th.
The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Clippers defense that ranks 18th.
Upset odds: the Nuggets win 4,580 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Nuggets 7th (+4.1), Clippers 15th (+0.9).
Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Nuggets 3rd (12.7), Clippers 20th (14.7).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	LAC -1.2
Total points	n/a	226.4
Win chance	DEN n/a · LAC n/a	DEN 46% · LAC 54%
Fair moneyline		DEN +118 · LAC -118

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Clippers 114, Nuggets 113.
80% of simulations land between Nuggets by 15 and Clippers by 18.

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Side by side

DEN		LAC
2-2	Record	1-3
+4.1 7	Net rating	+0.9 15
118.2 1	Offensive rating	114.0 10
114.1 21	Defensive rating	113.0 18
56.9% 2	Effective FG%	55.9% 4
54.1% 13	Opponent eFG%	54.6% 18
12.7 3	Turnovers per 100	14.7 20
23.3% 28	Offensive rebound %	23.8% 24
38.8% 1	3-point %	36.9% 5
102.1 20	Pace	99.6 29

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-02-19	2025-26	DEN 114 @ LAC 115	LAC
2026-01-30	2025-26	LAC 109 @ DEN 122	DEN
2025-11-12	2025-26	DEN 130 @ LAC 116	DEN
2025-05-03	Playoffs	LAC 101 @ DEN 120	DEN
2025-05-01	Playoffs	DEN 105 @ LAC 111	LAC

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

DEN

Nikola Jokic C

27.2 pts, 12.8 reb, 10.5 ast in 35.3 min, 55% FG

vs a defense ranked 18 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

DEN

Jamal Murray G

25.1 pts, 4.5 reb, 7 ast in 35.8 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 18 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

DEN

Aaron Gordon F

15.5 pts, 5.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 28.2 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 18 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

LAC

Darius Garland G

20.2 pts, 2.3 reb, 6.5 ast in 29.8 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

LAC

Keaton Wagler G

15 pts, 4.2 reb, 3.5 ast in 26.8 min, 32% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

LAC

Derrick Jones Jr. F

10.3 pts, 3.6 reb, 1.4 ast in 27.1 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Clippers beat the Nuggets 115-114 at home (2026-02-19). The box score was close to even; it came down to the last few possessions. Bennedict Mathurin led the Clippers with 38 points.