DEN
LAL
Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LALLos Angeles Lakers
65% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Lakers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Lakers +9.6, Nuggets -3.2.
- Simulation: the Lakers win 6,500 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Lakers' offense (114.7 points per 100 possessions, 6th in the NBA) meets a Nuggets defense that ranks 21st.
- The Lakers' shooting (57.2% eFG%, 1st in the NBA) meets a Nuggets defense that ranks 13th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Lakers may not
- The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 20th.
- The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 19th.
- Upset odds: the Nuggets win 3,500 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Nuggets 3rd (12.7), Lakers 22nd (14.9).
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Nuggets 7th (+4.1), Lakers 13th (+1.5).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAL -5.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.3 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · LAL n/a | DEN 35% · LAL 65% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN +185 · LAL -185 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Lakers 118, Nuggets 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Nuggets by 12 and Lakers by 22.
Side by side
| DEN | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| +4.1 7 | Net rating | +1.5 13 |
| 118.2 1 | Offensive rating | 114.7 6 |
| 114.1 21 | Defensive rating | 113.2 19 |
| 56.9% 2 | Effective FG% | 57.2% 1 |
| 54.1% 13 | Opponent eFG% | 55.2% 20 |
| 12.7 3 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.9 22 |
| 23.3% 28 | Offensive rebound % | 24.2% 21 |
| 38.8% 1 | 3-point % | 36.3% 9 |
| 102.1 20 | Pace | 100.5 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | 2025-26 | DEN 125 @ LAL 127 | LAL |
| 2026-03-05 | 2025-26 | LAL 113 @ DEN 120 | DEN |
| 2026-01-20 | 2025-26 | LAL 115 @ DEN 107 | LAL |
| 2025-03-19 | 2024-25 | DEN 108 @ LAL 120 | LAL |
| 2025-03-14 | 2024-25 | LAL 126 @ DEN 131 | DEN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works