DEN

Denver Nuggets @ Memphis Grizzlies

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

MEM

Our pick

MEMMemphis Grizzlies

56% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

DEN 44%MEM 56%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Grizzlies can win

Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Nuggets -3.2.
Home court: the Grizzlies play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Simulation: the Grizzlies win 5,610 of 10,000 simulated games.
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Grizzlies 8th (14.9), Nuggets 30th (11.9).
Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Grizzlies 17th (25.2%), Nuggets 28th (23.3%).

Disadvantages Why Grizzlies may not

The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 26th.
The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 22nd.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Nuggets 7th (+4.1), Grizzlies 22nd (-4.8).
Upset odds: the Nuggets win 4,390 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Point differential per game: Nuggets 7th (+4.2), Grizzlies 22nd (-5.0).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	MEM -2.2
Total points	n/a	230.4
Win chance	DEN n/a · MEM n/a	DEN 44% · MEM 56%
Fair moneyline		DEN +128 · MEM -128

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Grizzlies 117, Nuggets 114.
80% of simulations land between Nuggets by 15 and Grizzlies by 19.

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Side by side

DEN		MEM
2-2	Record	5-0
+4.1 7	Net rating	-4.8 22
118.2 1	Offensive rating	110.2 23
114.1 21	Defensive rating	114.9 22
56.9% 2	Effective FG%	53.3% 23
54.1% 13	Opponent eFG%	55.8% 26
12.7 3	Turnovers per 100	14.5 18
23.3% 28	Offensive rebound %	25.2% 17
38.8% 1	3-point %	35.5% 17
102.1 20	Pace	104.3 7

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-04-08	2025-26	MEM 119 @ DEN 136	DEN
2026-03-18	2025-26	DEN 118 @ MEM 125	MEM
2026-02-11	2025-26	MEM 116 @ DEN 122	DEN
2025-11-24	2025-26	DEN 125 @ MEM 115	DEN
2025-04-11	2024-25	MEM 109 @ DEN 117	DEN

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

DEN

Nikola Jokic C

27.2 pts, 12.8 reb, 10.5 ast in 35.3 min, 55% FG

vs a defense ranked 22 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.8%)

DEN

Jamal Murray G

25.1 pts, 4.5 reb, 7 ast in 35.8 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 22 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.8%)

DEN

Aaron Gordon F

15.5 pts, 5.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 28.2 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 22 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.8%)

MEM

Ty Jerome G

21.2 pts, 2.9 reb, 5.7 ast in 24.6 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

MEM

Cameron Boozer F

15.4 pts, 10.8 reb, 6.2 ast in 32 min, 32% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

MEM

Santi Aldama F

14 pts, 6.7 reb, 2.9 ast in 27.8 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Nuggets beat the Grizzlies 136-119 at home (2026-04-08). The difference: they shot 67% effective field goal percentage to 56% and they won the boards 52 to 38. Jamal Murray led the Nuggets with 26 points.