DEN

Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

MIA

Our pick

DENDenver Nuggets

52% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

AZMango model

DEN 52%MIA 48%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Nuggets can win

The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Heat defense that ranks 14th.
The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Heat defense that ranks 14th.
Simulation: the Nuggets win 5,160 of 10,000 simulated games.
Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to the Nuggets in our ratings.
Three-point shooting: Nuggets 1st (38.8%), Heat 12th (35.9%).

Disadvantages Why Nuggets may not

Upset odds: the Heat win 4,840 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Home court: the Heat play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
The Heat' offense (113.4 points per 100 possessions, 11th in the NBA) meets a Nuggets defense that ranks 21st.
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Heat 17th (14.2), Nuggets 30th (11.9).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nuggets lose by 16 or more.

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	DEN -0.7
Total points	n/a	235.9
Win chance	DEN n/a · MIA n/a	DEN 52% · MIA 48%
Fair moneyline		DEN -107 · MIA +107

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Heat 118, Nuggets 118.
80% of simulations land between Nuggets by 18 and Heat by 16.

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Side by side

DEN		MIA
2-2	Record	1-4
+4.1 7	Net rating	+1.6 12
118.2 1	Offensive rating	113.4 11
114.1 21	Defensive rating	111.8 14
56.9% 2	Effective FG%	54.1% 17
54.1% 13	Opponent eFG%	54.2% 14
12.7 3	Turnovers per 100	12.8 4
23.3% 28	Offensive rebound %	25.2% 16
38.8% 1	3-point %	35.9% 12
102.1 20	Pace	106.3 1

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2025-12-29	2025-26	DEN 123 @ MIA 147	MIA
2025-11-05	2025-26	MIA 112 @ DEN 122	DEN
2025-01-17	2024-25	DEN 133 @ MIA 113	DEN
2024-11-08	2024-25	MIA 122 @ DEN 135	DEN
2024-03-13	2023-24	DEN 100 @ MIA 88	DEN

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

DEN

Nikola Jokic C

27.2 pts, 12.8 reb, 10.5 ast in 35.3 min, 55% FG

vs a defense ranked 14 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

DEN

Jamal Murray G

25.1 pts, 4.5 reb, 7 ast in 35.8 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 14 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

DEN

Aaron Gordon F

15.5 pts, 5.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 28.2 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 14 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

MIA

Giannis Antetokounmpo F

27.6 pts, 11.2 reb, 4.6 ast in 31.6 min, 57% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

MIA

Bam Adebayo C

19.6 pts, 9.8 reb, 3.2 ast in 32 min, 44% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

MIA

Andrew Wiggins F

15.2 pts, 4.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 30.3 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Heat beat the Nuggets 147-123 at home (2025-12-29). The difference: they made 22 threes to 11, a 33-point swing and they won the boards 46 to 36. Norman Powell led the Heat with 25 points.