DEN
MIL
Denver Nuggets @ Milwaukee Bucks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Nuggets
64% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Nuggets can win
- The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Bucks defense that ranks 25th.
- The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Bucks defense that ranks 27th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.3 points to the Nuggets in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Nuggets 7th (+4.1), Bucks 25th (-6.4).
- Simulation: the Nuggets win 6,420 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Nuggets may not
- Home court: the Bucks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Nuggets defense that ranks 13th.
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 3,580 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nuggets lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Nuggets rank 30th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (11.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -4.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.3 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · MIL n/a | DEN 64% · MIL 36% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN -179 · MIL +179 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bucks 113, Nuggets 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Nuggets by 21 and Bucks by 12.
Side by side
| DEN | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| +4.1 7 | Net rating | -6.4 25 |
| 118.2 1 | Offensive rating | 110.1 24 |
| 114.1 21 | Defensive rating | 116.5 27 |
| 56.9% 2 | Effective FG% | 56.3% 3 |
| 54.1% 13 | Opponent eFG% | 55.7% 25 |
| 12.7 3 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.2 25 |
| 23.3% 28 | Offensive rebound % | 21.7% 30 |
| 38.8% 1 | 3-point % | 38.4% 2 |
| 102.1 20 | Pace | 100.6 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | 2025-26 | DEN 102 @ MIL 100 | DEN |
| 2026-01-11 | 2025-26 | MIL 104 @ DEN 108 | DEN |
| 2025-03-26 | 2024-25 | MIL 117 @ DEN 127 | DEN |
| 2025-02-27 | 2024-25 | DEN 112 @ MIL 121 | MIL |
| 2024-02-12 | 2023-24 | DEN 95 @ MIL 112 | MIL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works