DEN

Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

MIN

Our pick

MINMinnesota Timberwolves

66% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

AZMango model

DEN 34%MIN 66%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Timberwolves can win

Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Nuggets -3.2.
Simulation: the Timberwolves win 6,600 of 10,000 simulated games.
Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.7 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
Home court: the Timberwolves play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
The Timberwolves' offense (112.7 points per 100 possessions, 13th in the NBA) meets a Nuggets defense that ranks 21st.

Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not

Upset odds: the Nuggets win 3,400 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Nuggets 3rd (12.7), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Timberwolves defense that ranks 8th.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 12 or more.
Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Nuggets 4th (0.24), Timberwolves 15th (0.21).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	MIN -5.4
Total points	n/a	230.9
Win chance	DEN n/a · MIN n/a	DEN 34% · MIN 66%
Fair moneyline		DEN +194 · MIN -194

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Timberwolves 119, Nuggets 113.
80% of simulations land between Nuggets by 12 and Timberwolves by 22.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Plain links. We are not paid for them and take no bets.

Side by side

DEN		MIN
2-2	Record	3-2
+4.1 7	Net rating	+2.6 11
118.2 1	Offensive rating	112.7 13
114.1 21	Defensive rating	110.1 8
56.9% 2	Effective FG%	55.1% 9
54.1% 13	Opponent eFG%	52.8% 5
12.7 3	Turnovers per 100	14.3 16
23.3% 28	Offensive rebound %	26.0% 13
38.8% 1	3-point %	36.7% 6
102.1 20	Pace	103.8 10

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-04-30	Playoffs	DEN 98 @ MIN 110	MIN
2026-04-27	Playoffs	MIN 113 @ DEN 125	DEN
2026-04-25	Playoffs	DEN 96 @ MIN 112	MIN
2026-04-23	Playoffs	DEN 96 @ MIN 113	MIN
2026-04-20	Playoffs	MIN 119 @ DEN 114	MIN

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

DEN

Nikola Jokic C

27.2 pts, 12.8 reb, 10.5 ast in 35.3 min, 55% FG

vs a defense ranked 8 of 30 (opponent eFG% 52.8%)

DEN

Jamal Murray G

25.1 pts, 4.5 reb, 7 ast in 35.8 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 8 of 30 (opponent eFG% 52.8%)

DEN

Aaron Gordon F

15.5 pts, 5.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 28.2 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 8 of 30 (opponent eFG% 52.8%)

MIN

Anthony Edwards G

28.1 pts, 5 reb, 3.6 ast in 34.6 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

MIN

Jonathan Kuminga F

13.2 pts, 5.2 reb, 3 ast in 30.2 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

MIN

Rudy Gobert C

10.2 pts, 11.2 reb, 1.7 ast in 31.2 min, 65% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Timberwolves beat the Nuggets 110-98 at home (West 1st Round - Game 6). The difference: they won the boards 50 to 33 and they committed 5 fewer turnovers (8 to 13). Jaden McDaniels led the Timberwolves with 32 points.