DEN
NYK
Denver Nuggets @ New York Knicks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NYKNew York Knicks
65% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Knicks can win
- The Knicks' offense (116.4 points per 100 possessions, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Nuggets defense that ranks 21st.
- Simulation: the Knicks win 6,490 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to the Knicks in our ratings.
- Home court: the Knicks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Knicks 5th (29.3%), Nuggets 28th (23.3%).
Disadvantages Why Knicks may not
- Upset odds: the Nuggets win 3,510 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Nuggets 4th (0.24), Knicks 25th (0.19).
- The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Knicks defense that ranks 7th.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Knicks rank 25th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.19).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYK -5 |
| Total points | n/a | 224.8 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · NYK n/a | DEN 35% · NYK 65% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN +185 · NYK -185 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Knicks 115, Nuggets 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Nuggets by 12 and Knicks by 22.
Side by side
| DEN | NYK | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| +4.1 7 | Net rating | +7.6 3 |
| 118.2 1 | Offensive rating | 116.4 3 |
| 114.1 21 | Defensive rating | 108.7 4 |
| 56.9% 2 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 5 |
| 54.1% 13 | Opponent eFG% | 53.3% 7 |
| 12.7 3 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.7 9 |
| 23.3% 28 | Offensive rebound % | 29.3% 5 |
| 38.8% 1 | 3-point % | 37.5% 3 |
| 102.1 20 | Pace | 99.8 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | 2025-26 | NYK 142 @ DEN 103 | NYK |
| 2026-02-04 | 2025-26 | DEN 127 @ NYK 134 | NYK |
| 2025-01-29 | 2024-25 | DEN 112 @ NYK 122 | NYK |
| 2024-11-25 | 2024-25 | NYK 145 @ DEN 118 | NYK |
| 2024-03-21 | 2023-24 | NYK 100 @ DEN 113 | DEN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works