DEN
OKC
Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
68% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Simulation: the Thunder win 6,750 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Thunder' offense (115.4 points per 100 possessions, 4th in the NBA) meets a Nuggets defense that ranks 21st.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.8 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Thunder 1st (16.4), Nuggets 30th (11.9).
- Home court: the Thunder play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Upset odds: the Nuggets win 3,250 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 11 or more.
- Three-point shooting: Nuggets 1st (38.8%), Thunder 10th (36.2%).
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Nuggets 7th (74.9%), Thunder 17th (73.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -5.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.8 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · OKC n/a | DEN 32% · OKC 68% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN +208 · OKC -208 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Thunder 116, Nuggets 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Nuggets by 11 and Thunder by 23.
Side by side
| DEN | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| +4.1 7 | Net rating | +10.0 1 |
| 118.2 1 | Offensive rating | 115.4 4 |
| 114.1 21 | Defensive rating | 105.5 1 |
| 56.9% 2 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 6 |
| 54.1% 13 | Opponent eFG% | 51.8% 3 |
| 12.7 3 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.5 1 |
| 23.3% 28 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 27 |
| 38.8% 1 | 3-point % | 36.2% 10 |
| 102.1 20 | Pace | 102.2 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | 2026-27 | DEN 84 @ OKC 96 | OKC |
| 2026-04-10 | 2025-26 | OKC 107 @ DEN 127 | DEN |
| 2026-03-09 | 2025-26 | DEN 126 @ OKC 129 | OKC |
| 2026-02-27 | 2025-26 | DEN 121 @ OKC 127 | OKC |
| 2026-02-01 | 2025-26 | OKC 121 @ DEN 111 | OKC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works