DEN

Denver Nuggets @ Philadelphia 76ers

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

PHI

Our pick

PHIPhiladelphia 76ers

55% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

AZMango model

DEN 45%PHI 55%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why 76ers can win

Home court: the 76ers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Recent form: average margin over the last five games, 76ers +3.4, Nuggets -3.2.
Simulation: the 76ers win 5,480 of 10,000 simulated games.
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: 76ers 9th (14.8), Nuggets 30th (11.9).
Body clock: the Nuggets cross 2 time zones.

Disadvantages Why 76ers may not

Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Nuggets 7th (+4.1), 76ers 20th (-0.9).
Upset odds: the Nuggets win 4,520 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a 76ers defense that ranks 16th.
The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a 76ers defense that ranks 11th.
Three-point shooting: Nuggets 1st (38.8%), 76ers 23rd (34.7%).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	PHI -1.6
Total points	n/a	228.7
Win chance	DEN n/a · PHI n/a	DEN 45% · PHI 55%
Fair moneyline		DEN +121 · PHI -121

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: 76ers 115, Nuggets 114.
80% of simulations land between Nuggets by 15 and 76ers by 18.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

DEN		PHI
2-2	Record	4-1
+4.1 7	Net rating	-0.9 20
118.2 1	Offensive rating	111.2 19
114.1 21	Defensive rating	112.1 16
56.9% 2	Effective FG%	52.7% 27
54.1% 13	Opponent eFG%	54.0% 11
12.7 3	Turnovers per 100	13.1 5
23.3% 28	Offensive rebound %	25.1% 18
38.8% 1	3-point %	34.7% 23
102.1 20	Pace	102.7 13

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-03-17	2025-26	PHI 96 @ DEN 124	DEN
2026-01-05	2025-26	DEN 125 @ PHI 124	DEN
2025-01-31	2024-25	DEN 137 @ PHI 134	DEN
2025-01-21	2024-25	PHI 109 @ DEN 144	DEN
2024-01-27	2023-24	PHI 105 @ DEN 111	DEN

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

DEN

Nikola Jokic C

27.2 pts, 12.8 reb, 10.5 ast in 35.3 min, 55% FG

vs a defense ranked 16 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.0%)

DEN

Jamal Murray G

25.1 pts, 4.5 reb, 7 ast in 35.8 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 16 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.0%)

DEN

Aaron Gordon F

15.5 pts, 5.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 28.2 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 16 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.0%)

PHI

Tyrese Maxey G

27.7 pts, 4.1 reb, 6.4 ast in 38.3 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

PHI

Joel Embiid C

26 pts, 7.8 reb, 4.2 ast in 32.1 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

PHI

Jaylen Brown G

20.6 pts, 6.6 reb, 4.2 ast in 36.4 min, 44% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Nuggets beat the 76ers 124-96 at home (2026-03-17). The difference: they shot 59% effective field goal percentage to 44% and they made 16 threes to 9, a 21-point swing.