DEN
POR
Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trail Blazers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PORPortland Trail Blazers
57% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Trail Blazers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Trail Blazers +8.8, Nuggets -3.2.
- Simulation: the Trail Blazers win 5,730 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Trail Blazers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Trail Blazers 2nd (30.9%), Nuggets 28th (23.3%).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Trail Blazers 7th (15.0), Nuggets 30th (11.9).
Disadvantages Why Trail Blazers may not
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Nuggets 3rd (12.7), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Nuggets 7th (+4.1), Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5).
- Upset odds: the Nuggets win 4,270 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Nuggets 1st (38.8%), Trail Blazers 28th (34.1%).
- The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Trail Blazers defense that ranks 12th.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | POR -2.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.3 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · POR n/a | DEN 43% · POR 57% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN +134 · POR -134 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Trail Blazers 117, Nuggets 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Nuggets by 14 and Trail Blazers by 19.
Side by side
| DEN | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| +4.1 7 | Net rating | -0.5 18 |
| 118.2 1 | Offensive rating | 110.9 21 |
| 114.1 21 | Defensive rating | 111.4 12 |
| 56.9% 2 | Effective FG% | 53.2% 24 |
| 54.1% 13 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 12 |
| 12.7 3 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.3 30 |
| 23.3% 28 | Offensive rebound % | 30.9% 2 |
| 38.8% 1 | 3-point % | 34.1% 28 |
| 102.1 20 | Pace | 103.7 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | 2025-26 | POR 132 @ DEN 137 | DEN |
| 2026-03-22 | 2025-26 | POR 112 @ DEN 128 | DEN |
| 2026-02-20 | 2025-26 | DEN 157 @ POR 103 | DEN |
| 2025-10-31 | 2025-26 | DEN 107 @ POR 109 | POR |
| 2025-03-21 | 2024-25 | DEN 109 @ POR 128 | POR |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works