DEN

Denver Nuggets @ Sacramento Kings

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

SAC

Our pick

DENDenver Nuggets

70% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

AZMango model

DEN 70%SAC 30%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Nuggets can win

Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.6 points to the Nuggets in our ratings.
The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 29th.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Nuggets 7th (+4.1), Kings 29th (-10.1).
The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 28th.
Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Nuggets -3.2, Kings -16.6.

Disadvantages Why Nuggets may not

Home court: the Kings play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Upset odds: the Kings win 2,990 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Kings 14th (25.8%), Nuggets 28th (23.3%).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nuggets lose by 10 or more.
Weak spot: the Nuggets rank 30th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (11.9).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	DEN -6.9
Total points	n/a	233.1
Win chance	DEN n/a · SAC n/a	DEN 70% · SAC 30%
Fair moneyline		DEN -234 · SAC +234

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Kings 113, Nuggets 120.
80% of simulations land between Nuggets by 23 and Kings by 10.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

DEN		SAC
2-2	Record	0-5
+4.1 7	Net rating	-10.1 29
118.2 1	Offensive rating	108.3 28
114.1 21	Defensive rating	118.5 28
56.9% 2	Effective FG%	52.4% 29
54.1% 13	Opponent eFG%	57.3% 29
12.7 3	Turnovers per 100	14.1 14
23.3% 28	Offensive rebound %	25.8% 14
38.8% 1	3-point %	33.8% 30
102.1 20	Pace	102.4 16

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2025-12-11	2025-26	DEN 136 @ SAC 105	DEN
2025-11-22	2025-26	SAC 128 @ DEN 123	SAC
2025-11-11	2025-26	DEN 122 @ SAC 108	DEN
2025-11-03	2025-26	SAC 124 @ DEN 130	DEN
2025-04-09	2024-25	DEN 124 @ SAC 116	DEN

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

DEN

Nikola Jokic C

27.2 pts, 12.8 reb, 10.5 ast in 35.3 min, 55% FG

vs a defense ranked 28 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.3%)

DEN

Jamal Murray G

25.1 pts, 4.5 reb, 7 ast in 35.8 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 28 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.3%)

DEN

Aaron Gordon F

15.5 pts, 5.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 28.2 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 28 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.3%)

SAC

Domantas Sabonis F

16.1 pts, 12.4 reb, 4.8 ast in 31.2 min, 57% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

SAC

Zach LaVine G

20 pts, 2.8 reb, 2.4 ast in 32 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

SAC

Darius Acuff Jr. G

24 pts, 3.4 reb, 6.6 ast in 36.4 min, 38% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Nuggets beat the Kings 136-105 on the road (2025-12-11). The difference: they shot 66% effective field goal percentage to 51% and they won the boards 46 to 38. Nikola Jokic led the Nuggets with 36 points.