DEN
SAS
Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
70% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.6 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Spurs win 6,980 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Spurs +6.6, Nuggets -3.2.
- The Spurs' offense (115.2 points per 100 possessions, 5th in the NBA) meets a Nuggets defense that ranks 21st.
- Home court: the Spurs play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Upset odds: the Nuggets win 3,020 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Nuggets 1st (38.8%), Spurs 14th (35.8%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -7 |
| Total points | n/a | 229 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · SAS n/a | DEN 30% · SAS 70% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN +231 · SAS -231 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Spurs 118, Nuggets 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Nuggets by 10 and Spurs by 24.
Side by side
| DEN | SAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| +4.1 7 | Net rating | +7.7 2 |
| 118.2 1 | Offensive rating | 115.2 5 |
| 114.1 21 | Defensive rating | 107.5 3 |
| 56.9% 2 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 8 |
| 54.1% 13 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 2 |
| 12.7 3 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.3 6 |
| 23.3% 28 | Offensive rebound % | 26.4% 10 |
| 38.8% 1 | 3-point % | 35.8% 14 |
| 102.1 20 | Pace | 102.5 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | 2025-26 | DEN 128 @ SAS 118 | DEN |
| 2026-04-04 | 2025-26 | SAS 134 @ DEN 136 | DEN |
| 2026-03-12 | 2025-26 | DEN 136 @ SAS 131 | DEN |
| 2025-11-28 | 2025-26 | SAS 139 @ DEN 136 | SAS |
| 2025-04-02 | 2024-25 | SAS 113 @ DEN 106 | SAS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works