DEN
TOR
Denver Nuggets @ Toronto Raptors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
62% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Nuggets -3.2.
- Simulation: the Raptors win 6,200 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Raptors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Raptors 3rd (16.2), Nuggets 30th (11.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the Nuggets win 3,800 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Nuggets 1st (38.8%), Raptors 21st (35.2%).
- The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Raptors defense that ranks 8th.
- The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Raptors defense that ranks 7th.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 13 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -4.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 227.7 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · TOR n/a | DEN 38% · TOR 62% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN +163 · TOR -163 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Raptors 116, Nuggets 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Nuggets by 13 and Raptors by 21.
Side by side
| DEN | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| +4.1 7 | Net rating | +3.0 9 |
| 118.2 1 | Offensive rating | 112.4 15 |
| 114.1 21 | Defensive rating | 109.4 7 |
| 56.9% 2 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 15 |
| 54.1% 13 | Opponent eFG% | 53.8% 8 |
| 12.7 3 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 8 |
| 23.3% 28 | Offensive rebound % | 25.7% 15 |
| 38.8% 1 | 3-point % | 35.2% 21 |
| 102.1 20 | Pace | 101.8 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | 2025-26 | TOR 115 @ DEN 121 | DEN |
| 2025-12-31 | 2025-26 | DEN 106 @ TOR 103 | DEN |
| 2024-11-04 | 2024-25 | TOR 119 @ DEN 121 | DEN |
| 2024-10-28 | 2024-25 | DEN 127 @ TOR 125 | DEN |
| 2024-03-11 | 2023-24 | TOR 119 @ DEN 125 | DEN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works