DEN
UTA
Denver Nuggets @ Utah Jazz
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Nuggets
61% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Nuggets can win
- The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 30th.
- The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 29th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Nuggets 7th (+4.1), Jazz 27th (-7.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.6 points to the Nuggets in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Nuggets win 6,110 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Nuggets may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 3,890 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Jazz play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Jazz 12th (26.3%), Nuggets 28th (23.3%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nuggets lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: the Nuggets rank 30th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (11.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -3.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 234.6 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · UTA n/a | DEN 61% · UTA 39% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN -157 · UTA +157 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Jazz 116, Nuggets 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Nuggets by 20 and Jazz by 13.
Side by side
| DEN | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| +4.1 7 | Net rating | -7.9 27 |
| 118.2 1 | Offensive rating | 111.1 20 |
| 114.1 21 | Defensive rating | 119.0 29 |
| 56.9% 2 | Effective FG% | 53.6% 20 |
| 54.1% 13 | Opponent eFG% | 57.6% 30 |
| 12.7 3 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.8 21 |
| 23.3% 28 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 12 |
| 38.8% 1 | 3-point % | 34.4% 24 |
| 102.1 20 | Pace | 105.6 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | 2025-26 | DEN 130 @ UTA 117 | DEN |
| 2026-03-27 | 2025-26 | UTA 129 @ DEN 135 | DEN |
| 2026-03-02 | 2025-26 | DEN 128 @ UTA 125 | DEN |
| 2025-12-22 | 2025-26 | UTA 112 @ DEN 135 | DEN |
| 2025-03-28 | 2024-25 | UTA 93 @ DEN 129 | DEN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works