DEN
WAS
Denver Nuggets @ Washington Wizards
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Nuggets
61% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Nuggets can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Nuggets 7th (+4.1), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 27th.
- The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 30th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.5 points to the Nuggets in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Nuggets 7th (+4.2), Wizards 30th (-11.4).
Disadvantages Why Nuggets may not
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 3,930 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Wizards play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nuggets lose by 13 or more.
- Body clock: the Nuggets cross 2 time zones.
- Weak spot: the Nuggets rank 30th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (11.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -3.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.6 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · WAS n/a | DEN 61% · WAS 39% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN -155 · WAS +155 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Wizards 115, Nuggets 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Nuggets by 20 and Wizards by 13.
Side by side
| DEN | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| +4.1 7 | Net rating | -10.9 30 |
| 118.2 1 | Offensive rating | 108.2 29 |
| 114.1 21 | Defensive rating | 119.2 30 |
| 56.9% 2 | Effective FG% | 53.5% 21 |
| 54.1% 13 | Opponent eFG% | 55.9% 27 |
| 12.7 3 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 23 |
| 23.3% 28 | Offensive rebound % | 23.9% 22 |
| 38.8% 1 | 3-point % | 35.5% 18 |
| 102.1 20 | Pace | 104.3 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-22 | 2025-26 | DEN 107 @ WAS 97 | DEN |
| 2026-01-17 | 2025-26 | WAS 115 @ DEN 121 | DEN |
| 2025-03-15 | 2024-25 | WAS 126 @ DEN 123 | WAS |
| 2024-12-07 | 2024-25 | DEN 113 @ WAS 122 | WAS |
| 2024-02-22 | 2023-24 | WAS 110 @ DEN 130 | DEN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works