DET
BOS
Detroit Pistons @ Boston Celtics
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Home court: the Celtics play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Celtics 2nd (12.7), Pistons 24th (15.0).
- Simulation: the Celtics win 5,220 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Celtics 4th (75.9%), Pistons 15th (74.0%).
- Strength: the Celtics rank 1st of 30 in points allowed per game (107.1).
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the Pistons win 4,780 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Pistons 2nd (16.3), Celtics 27th (12.8).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Pistons 6th (0.22), Celtics 29th (0.17).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 16 or more.
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -0.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 220.9 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · BOS n/a | DET 48% · BOS 52% |
| Fair moneyline | DET +109 · BOS -109 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Celtics 111, Pistons 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Pistons by 16 and Celtics by 17.
Side by side
| DET | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-1 |
| +7.0 5 | Net rating | +7.5 4 |
| 113.2 12 | Offensive rating | 116.6 2 |
| 106.2 2 | Defensive rating | 109.1 5 |
| 54.2% 16 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 10 |
| 51.4% 1 | Opponent eFG% | 52.2% 4 |
| 15.0 24 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 2 |
| 30.8% 3 | Offensive rebound % | 29.0% 6 |
| 35.8% 15 | 3-point % | 36.5% 8 |
| 102.1 19 | Pace | 98.1 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | 2026-27 | BOS 113 @ DET 121 | DET |
| 2026-01-19 | 2025-26 | BOS 103 @ DET 104 | DET |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-26 | DET 112 @ BOS 105 | DET |
| 2025-11-26 | 2025-26 | DET 114 @ BOS 117 | BOS |
| 2025-10-26 | 2025-26 | BOS 113 @ DET 119 | DET |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works