DET
DAL
Detroit Pistons @ Dallas Mavericks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
59% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), Mavericks 23rd (-4.8).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.2 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Pistons win 5,910 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Pistons 5th (+7.2), Mavericks 23rd (-5.1).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Pistons 2nd (16.3), Mavericks 26th (12.8).
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Upset odds: the Mavericks win 4,090 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Mavericks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Mavericks 13th (14.0), Pistons 24th (15.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -3.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.1 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · DAL n/a | DET 59% · DAL 41% |
| Fair moneyline | DET -144 · DAL +144 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Mavericks 111, Pistons 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Pistons by 19 and Mavericks by 14.
Side by side
| DET | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| +7.0 5 | Net rating | -4.8 23 |
| 113.2 12 | Offensive rating | 108.7 26 |
| 106.2 2 | Defensive rating | 113.5 20 |
| 54.2% 16 | Effective FG% | 52.9% 25 |
| 51.4% 1 | Opponent eFG% | 54.5% 17 |
| 15.0 24 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 13 |
| 30.8% 3 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 25 |
| 35.8% 15 | 3-point % | 34.4% 26 |
| 102.1 19 | Pace | 105.0 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-18 | 2025-26 | DET 114 @ DAL 116 | DAL |
| 2025-11-01 | 2025-26 | DAL 110 @ DET 122 | DET |
| 2025-03-21 | 2024-25 | DET 117 @ DAL 123 | DAL |
| 2025-01-31 | 2024-25 | DAL 102 @ DET 117 | DET |
| 2024-04-12 | 2023-24 | DET 107 @ DAL 89 | DET |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works