DET
DEN
Detroit Pistons @ Denver Nuggets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
57% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pistons +6.4, Nuggets -3.2.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.8 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Pistons win 5,740 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Pistons 2nd (16.3), Nuggets 30th (11.9).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pistons 3rd (30.8%), Nuggets 28th (23.3%).
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Upset odds: the Nuggets win 4,260 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Nuggets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Nuggets 3rd (12.7), Pistons 24th (15.0).
- Three-point shooting: Nuggets 1st (38.8%), Pistons 15th (35.8%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 14 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -2.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 224.3 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · DEN n/a | DET 57% · DEN 43% |
| Fair moneyline | DET -135 · DEN +135 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Nuggets 111, Pistons 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Pistons by 19 and Nuggets by 14.
Side by side
| DET | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-2 |
| +7.0 5 | Net rating | +4.1 7 |
| 113.2 12 | Offensive rating | 118.2 1 |
| 106.2 2 | Defensive rating | 114.1 21 |
| 54.2% 16 | Effective FG% | 56.9% 2 |
| 51.4% 1 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 13 |
| 15.0 24 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 3 |
| 30.8% 3 | Offensive rebound % | 23.3% 28 |
| 35.8% 15 | 3-point % | 38.8% 1 |
| 102.1 19 | Pace | 102.1 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | 2025-26 | DEN 121 @ DET 124 | DET |
| 2026-01-27 | 2025-26 | DET 109 @ DEN 107 | DET |
| 2025-02-28 | 2024-25 | DEN 134 @ DET 119 | DEN |
| 2024-12-28 | 2024-25 | DET 121 @ DEN 134 | DEN |
| 2024-01-07 | 2023-24 | DET 114 @ DEN 131 | DEN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works