DET
GSW
Detroit Pistons @ Golden State Warriors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
62% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.5 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), Warriors 19th (-0.7).
- Simulation: the Pistons win 6,190 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pistons +6.4, Warriors -1.8.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.8 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Upset odds: the Warriors win 3,810 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Warriors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 13 or more.
- Body clock: the Pistons cross 3 time zones.
- Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -3.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.4 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · GSW n/a | DET 62% · GSW 38% |
| Fair moneyline | DET -162 · GSW +162 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Warriors 111, Pistons 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Pistons by 20 and Warriors by 13.
Side by side
| DET | GSW | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| +7.0 5 | Net rating | -0.7 19 |
| 113.2 12 | Offensive rating | 112.2 16 |
| 106.2 2 | Defensive rating | 112.9 17 |
| 54.2% 16 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 12 |
| 51.4% 1 | Opponent eFG% | 55.6% 24 |
| 15.0 24 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.5 27 |
| 30.8% 3 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 11 |
| 35.8% 15 | 3-point % | 35.7% 16 |
| 102.1 19 | Pace | 102.3 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | 2025-26 | GSW 101 @ DET 115 | DET |
| 2026-01-30 | 2025-26 | DET 131 @ GSW 124 | DET |
| 2025-03-08 | 2024-25 | DET 110 @ GSW 115 | GSW |
| 2025-01-09 | 2024-25 | GSW 107 @ DET 104 | GSW |
| 2024-01-05 | 2023-24 | DET 109 @ GSW 113 | GSW |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works