DET
HOU
Detroit Pistons @ Houston Rockets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
61% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Simulation: the Rockets win 6,110 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Pistons +6.4.
- Home court: the Rockets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.9 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 0.8 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Upset odds: the Pistons win 3,890 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Pistons 2nd (16.3), Rockets 19th (13.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 13 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Pistons 6th (0.22), Rockets 18th (0.20).
- Weak spot: the Rockets rank 26th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -3.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 221.1 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · HOU n/a | DET 39% · HOU 61% |
| Fair moneyline | DET +157 · HOU -157 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Rockets 113, Pistons 109.
- 80% of simulations land between Pistons by 13 and Rockets by 20.
Side by side
| DET | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 5-0 |
| +7.0 5 | Net rating | +5.2 6 |
| 113.2 12 | Offensive rating | 114.6 8 |
| 106.2 2 | Defensive rating | 109.4 6 |
| 54.2% 16 | Effective FG% | 54.0% 18 |
| 51.4% 1 | Opponent eFG% | 53.0% 6 |
| 15.0 24 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.4 26 |
| 30.8% 3 | Offensive rebound % | 34.3% 1 |
| 35.8% 15 | 3-point % | 36.2% 11 |
| 102.1 19 | Pace | 100.0 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | 2025-26 | HOU 111 @ DET 104 | HOU |
| 2025-10-24 | 2025-26 | DET 115 @ HOU 111 | DET |
| 2025-01-20 | 2024-25 | DET 107 @ HOU 96 | DET |
| 2024-11-10 | 2024-25 | HOU 101 @ DET 99 | HOU |
| 2024-01-12 | 2023-24 | HOU 112 @ DET 110 | HOU |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works