DET
IND
Detroit Pistons @ Indiana Pacers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
68% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.0 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), Pacers 26th (-7.2).
- Simulation: the Pistons win 6,750 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.8 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Pistons 5th (+7.2), Pacers 26th (-7.5).
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Home court: the Pacers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Pacers win 3,250 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pacers 12th (14.0), Pistons 24th (15.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -6.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.4 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · IND n/a | DET 68% · IND 32% |
| Fair moneyline | DET -208 · IND +208 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pacers 110, Pistons 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Pistons by 23 and Pacers by 11.
Side by side
| DET | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| +7.0 5 | Net rating | -7.2 26 |
| 113.2 12 | Offensive rating | 108.4 27 |
| 106.2 2 | Defensive rating | 115.6 24 |
| 54.2% 16 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 22 |
| 51.4% 1 | Opponent eFG% | 55.4% 22 |
| 15.0 24 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 12 |
| 30.8% 3 | Offensive rebound % | 21.8% 29 |
| 35.8% 15 | 3-point % | 35.3% 20 |
| 102.1 19 | Pace | 103.9 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | 2025-26 | DET 133 @ IND 121 | DET |
| 2026-01-17 | 2025-26 | IND 78 @ DET 121 | DET |
| 2025-11-24 | 2025-26 | DET 122 @ IND 117 | DET |
| 2025-11-17 | 2025-26 | IND 112 @ DET 127 | DET |
| 2025-01-29 | 2024-25 | DET 119 @ IND 133 | IND |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works