DET
LAC
Detroit Pistons @ LA Clippers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
59% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.9 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pistons +6.4, Clippers -1.5.
- Simulation: the Pistons win 5,930 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), Clippers 15th (+0.9).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.7 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Upset odds: the Clippers win 4,070 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Clippers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 14 or more.
- Body clock: the Pistons cross 3 time zones.
- Three-point shooting: Clippers 5th (36.9%), Pistons 15th (35.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -3 |
| Total points | n/a | 219.8 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · LAC n/a | DET 59% · LAC 41% |
| Fair moneyline | DET -146 · LAC +146 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Clippers 108, Pistons 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Pistons by 20 and Clippers by 14.
Side by side
| DET | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-3 |
| +7.0 5 | Net rating | +0.9 15 |
| 113.2 12 | Offensive rating | 114.0 10 |
| 106.2 2 | Defensive rating | 113.0 18 |
| 54.2% 16 | Effective FG% | 55.9% 4 |
| 51.4% 1 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 18 |
| 15.0 24 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.7 20 |
| 30.8% 3 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 24 |
| 35.8% 15 | 3-point % | 36.9% 5 |
| 102.1 19 | Pace | 99.6 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | 2025-26 | LAC 98 @ DET 92 | LAC |
| 2025-12-28 | 2025-26 | DET 99 @ LAC 112 | LAC |
| 2025-03-05 | 2024-25 | DET 115 @ LAC 123 | LAC |
| 2025-02-24 | 2024-25 | LAC 97 @ DET 106 | DET |
| 2024-02-10 | 2023-24 | DET 106 @ LAC 112 | LAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works