DET
LAL
Detroit Pistons @ Los Angeles Lakers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LALLos Angeles Lakers
53% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Lakers can win
- Home court: the Lakers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Lakers win 5,340 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Body clock: the Pistons cross 3 time zones.
- Strength: the Lakers rank 1st of 30 in effective shooting (eFG%) (57.2%).
- Strength: the Lakers rank 2nd of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.25).
Disadvantages Why Lakers may not
- Upset odds: the Pistons win 4,660 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), Lakers 13th (+1.5).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pistons 3rd (30.8%), Lakers 21st (24.2%).
- The Pistons' offense (113.2 points per 100 possessions, 12th in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 19th.
- Point differential per game: Pistons 5th (+7.2), Lakers 13th (+1.5).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAL -0.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 223.7 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · LAL n/a | DET 47% · LAL 53% |
| Fair moneyline | DET +115 · LAL -115 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Lakers 113, Pistons 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Pistons by 16 and Lakers by 18.
Side by side
| DET | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| +7.0 5 | Net rating | +1.5 13 |
| 113.2 12 | Offensive rating | 114.7 6 |
| 106.2 2 | Defensive rating | 113.2 19 |
| 54.2% 16 | Effective FG% | 57.2% 1 |
| 51.4% 1 | Opponent eFG% | 55.2% 20 |
| 15.0 24 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.9 22 |
| 30.8% 3 | Offensive rebound % | 24.2% 21 |
| 35.8% 15 | 3-point % | 36.3% 9 |
| 102.1 19 | Pace | 100.5 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-23 | 2025-26 | LAL 110 @ DET 113 | DET |
| 2025-12-30 | 2025-26 | DET 128 @ LAL 106 | DET |
| 2024-12-23 | 2024-25 | DET 117 @ LAL 114 | DET |
| 2024-11-04 | 2024-25 | LAL 103 @ DET 115 | DET |
| 2024-02-13 | 2023-24 | DET 111 @ LAL 125 | LAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works