DET

Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

MIA

Our pick

DETDetroit Pistons

64% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

DET 64%MIA 36%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Pistons can win

Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.4 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pistons +6.4, Heat -7.8.
Simulation: the Pistons win 6,450 of 10,000 simulated games.
Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.3 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), Heat 12th (+1.6).

Disadvantages Why Pistons may not

Home court: the Heat play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Upset odds: the Heat win 3,550 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Heat 4th (12.8), Pistons 24th (15.0).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 12 or more.
Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	DET -5
Total points	n/a	229.4
Win chance	DET n/a · MIA n/a	DET 64% · MIA 36%
Fair moneyline		DET -182 · MIA +182

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Heat 113, Pistons 117.
80% of simulations land between Pistons by 22 and Heat by 12.

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Side by side

DET		MIA
4-1	Record	1-4
+7.0 5	Net rating	+1.6 12
113.2 12	Offensive rating	113.4 11
106.2 2	Defensive rating	111.8 14
54.2% 16	Effective FG%	54.1% 17
51.4% 1	Opponent eFG%	54.2% 14
15.0 24	Turnovers per 100	12.8 4
30.8% 3	Offensive rebound %	25.2% 16
35.8% 15	3-point %	35.9% 12
102.1 19	Pace	106.3 1

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-10-23	2026-27	DET 128 @ MIA 111	DET
2026-03-08	2025-26	DET 110 @ MIA 121	MIA
2026-01-01	2025-26	MIA 118 @ DET 112	MIA
2025-11-29	2025-26	DET 138 @ MIA 135	DET
2025-03-19	2024-25	DET 116 @ MIA 113	DET

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

DET

Cade Cunningham G

24.6 pts, 5.5 reb, 9.4 ast in 35.1 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 14 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

DET

Jalen Duren C

17.8 pts, 10.1 reb, 2 ast in 28.3 min, 63% FG

vs a defense ranked 14 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

DET

Tobias Harris F

14.1 pts, 5.5 reb, 2.3 ast in 29 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 14 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.2%)

MIA

Giannis Antetokounmpo F

27.6 pts, 11.2 reb, 4.6 ast in 31.6 min, 57% FG

vs a defense ranked 2 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.4%)

MIA

Bam Adebayo C

19.6 pts, 9.8 reb, 3.2 ast in 32 min, 44% FG

vs a defense ranked 2 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.4%)

MIA

Andrew Wiggins F

15.2 pts, 4.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 30.3 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 2 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.4%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Pistons beat the Heat 128-111 on the road (2026-10-23). The difference: they shot 63% effective field goal percentage to 46% and they made 18 threes to 15, a 9-point swing.