DET
MIN
Detroit Pistons @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
55% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Home court: the Timberwolves play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 5,470 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Pistons +6.4.
- Three-point shooting: Timberwolves 6th (36.7%), Pistons 15th (35.8%).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Timberwolves 16th (14.3), Pistons 24th (15.0).
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Upset odds: the Pistons win 4,530 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), Timberwolves 11th (+2.6).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Pistons 2nd (16.3), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 16 or more.
- Point differential per game: Pistons 5th (+7.2), Timberwolves 11th (+2.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -1.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 224.4 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · MIN n/a | DET 45% · MIN 55% |
| Fair moneyline | DET +121 · MIN -121 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Timberwolves 113, Pistons 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Pistons by 16 and Timberwolves by 18.
Side by side
| DET | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| +7.0 5 | Net rating | +2.6 11 |
| 113.2 12 | Offensive rating | 112.7 13 |
| 106.2 2 | Defensive rating | 110.1 8 |
| 54.2% 16 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 9 |
| 51.4% 1 | Opponent eFG% | 52.8% 5 |
| 15.0 24 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.3 16 |
| 30.8% 3 | Offensive rebound % | 26.0% 13 |
| 35.8% 15 | 3-point % | 36.7% 6 |
| 102.1 19 | Pace | 103.8 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | 2025-26 | MIN 108 @ DET 113 | DET |
| 2026-03-28 | 2025-26 | DET 109 @ MIN 87 | DET |
| 2025-03-30 | 2024-25 | DET 104 @ MIN 123 | MIN |
| 2025-01-04 | 2024-25 | MIN 105 @ DET 119 | DET |
| 2024-03-27 | 2023-24 | DET 91 @ MIN 106 | MIN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works