DET
NOP
Detroit Pistons @ New Orleans Pelicans
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
67% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.8 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), Pelicans 21st (-4.2).
- Simulation: the Pistons win 6,720 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.6 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pistons +6.4, Pelicans -2.2.
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Home court: the Pelicans play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 3,280 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pelicans 10th (13.8), Pistons 24th (15.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -5.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.9 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · NOP n/a | DET 67% · NOP 33% |
| Fair moneyline | DET -205 · NOP +205 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pelicans 111, Pistons 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Pistons by 23 and Pelicans by 11.
Side by side
| DET | NOP | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| +7.0 5 | Net rating | -4.2 21 |
| 113.2 12 | Offensive rating | 111.2 18 |
| 106.2 2 | Defensive rating | 115.4 23 |
| 54.2% 16 | Effective FG% | 52.8% 26 |
| 51.4% 1 | Opponent eFG% | 55.5% 23 |
| 15.0 24 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.8 10 |
| 30.8% 3 | Offensive rebound % | 26.7% 9 |
| 35.8% 15 | 3-point % | 34.4% 25 |
| 102.1 19 | Pace | 104.1 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | 2025-26 | NOP 108 @ DET 129 | DET |
| 2026-01-21 | 2025-26 | DET 112 @ NOP 104 | DET |
| 2025-03-23 | 2024-25 | NOP 130 @ DET 136 | DET |
| 2025-03-17 | 2024-25 | DET 127 @ NOP 81 | DET |
| 2024-03-24 | 2023-24 | NOP 114 @ DET 101 | NOP |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works