DET
OKC
Detroit Pistons @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (12.5), Pistons 24th (15.0).
- Home court: the Thunder play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Thunder win 5,420 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Strength: the Thunder rank 1st of 30 in net rating (points per 100 possessions) (+10.0).
- Strength: the Thunder rank 1st of 30 in defense, points allowed per 100 possessions (105.5).
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Upset odds: the Pistons win 4,580 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pistons 3rd (30.8%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Pistons 6th (0.22), Thunder 14th (0.21).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -1.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 219.3 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · OKC n/a | DET 46% · OKC 54% |
| Fair moneyline | DET +118 · OKC -118 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Thunder 111, Pistons 109.
- 80% of simulations land between Pistons by 15 and Thunder by 19.
Side by side
| DET | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| +7.0 5 | Net rating | +10.0 1 |
| 113.2 12 | Offensive rating | 115.4 4 |
| 106.2 2 | Defensive rating | 105.5 1 |
| 54.2% 16 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 6 |
| 51.4% 1 | Opponent eFG% | 51.8% 3 |
| 15.0 24 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.5 1 |
| 30.8% 3 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 27 |
| 35.8% 15 | 3-point % | 36.2% 10 |
| 102.1 19 | Pace | 102.2 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | 2025-26 | DET 110 @ OKC 114 | OKC |
| 2026-02-25 | 2025-26 | OKC 116 @ DET 124 | DET |
| 2025-04-02 | 2024-25 | DET 103 @ OKC 119 | OKC |
| 2025-03-15 | 2024-25 | OKC 113 @ DET 107 | OKC |
| 2024-01-28 | 2023-24 | OKC 104 @ DET 120 | DET |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works