DET
PHX
Detroit Pistons @ Phoenix Suns
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
64% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pistons +6.4, Suns -14.3.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.2 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Pistons win 6,450 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), Suns 16th (+0.2).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.4 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Home court: the Suns play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Suns win 3,550 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 12 or more.
- Body clock: the Pistons cross 2 time zones.
- Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -4.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 222 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · PHX n/a | DET 64% · PHX 36% |
| Fair moneyline | DET -181 · PHX +181 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Suns 109, Pistons 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Pistons by 21 and Suns by 12.
Side by side
| DET | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-2 |
| +7.0 5 | Net rating | +0.2 16 |
| 113.2 12 | Offensive rating | 111.8 17 |
| 106.2 2 | Defensive rating | 111.6 13 |
| 54.2% 16 | Effective FG% | 53.7% 19 |
| 51.4% 1 | Opponent eFG% | 54.3% 16 |
| 15.0 24 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 19 |
| 30.8% 3 | Offensive rebound % | 28.7% 7 |
| 35.8% 15 | 3-point % | 35.9% 13 |
| 102.1 19 | Pace | 100.3 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-29 | 2025-26 | DET 96 @ PHX 114 | PHX |
| 2026-01-15 | 2025-26 | PHX 105 @ DET 108 | DET |
| 2025-01-18 | 2024-25 | PHX 125 @ DET 121 | PHX |
| 2024-12-21 | 2024-25 | DET 133 @ PHX 125 | DET |
| 2024-02-14 | 2023-24 | DET 100 @ PHX 116 | PHX |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works