DET
SAC
Detroit Pistons @ Sacramento Kings
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
81% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 81% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 8.4 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), Kings 29th (-10.1).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pistons +6.4, Kings -16.6.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 4.3 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Pistons win 8,070 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Home court: the Kings play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Kings win 1,930 of 10,000 simulations (19%). A 81% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Kings 14th (14.1), Pistons 24th (15.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 6 or more.
- Body clock: the Pistons cross 3 time zones.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -11.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 226.6 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · SAC n/a | DET 81% · SAC 19% |
| Fair moneyline | DET -417 · SAC +417 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Kings 108, Pistons 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Pistons by 28 and Kings by 6.
Side by side
| DET | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 0-5 |
| +7.0 5 | Net rating | -10.1 29 |
| 113.2 12 | Offensive rating | 108.3 28 |
| 106.2 2 | Defensive rating | 118.5 28 |
| 54.2% 16 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 29 |
| 51.4% 1 | Opponent eFG% | 57.3% 29 |
| 15.0 24 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.1 14 |
| 30.8% 3 | Offensive rebound % | 25.8% 14 |
| 35.8% 15 | 3-point % | 33.8% 30 |
| 102.1 19 | Pace | 102.4 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | 2025-26 | SAC 116 @ DET 139 | DET |
| 2025-12-23 | 2025-26 | DET 136 @ SAC 127 | DET |
| 2025-04-07 | 2024-25 | SAC 127 @ DET 117 | SAC |
| 2024-12-26 | 2024-25 | DET 114 @ SAC 113 | DET |
| 2024-02-07 | 2023-24 | DET 133 @ SAC 120 | DET |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works