DET
SAS
Detroit Pistons @ San Antonio Spurs
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
59% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Simulation: the Spurs win 5,860 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Spurs play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Spurs 6th (13.3), Pistons 24th (15.0).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.8 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Spurs 2nd (76.6%), Pistons 15th (74.0%).
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Upset odds: the Pistons win 4,140 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Pistons 2nd (16.3), Spurs 25th (13.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pistons 3rd (30.8%), Spurs 10th (26.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -2.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 222.4 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · SAS n/a | DET 41% · SAS 59% |
| Fair moneyline | DET +141 · SAS -141 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Spurs 113, Pistons 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Pistons by 14 and Spurs by 20.
Side by side
| DET | SAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| +7.0 5 | Net rating | +7.7 2 |
| 113.2 12 | Offensive rating | 115.2 5 |
| 106.2 2 | Defensive rating | 107.5 3 |
| 54.2% 16 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 8 |
| 51.4% 1 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 2 |
| 15.0 24 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.3 6 |
| 30.8% 3 | Offensive rebound % | 26.4% 10 |
| 35.8% 15 | 3-point % | 35.8% 14 |
| 102.1 19 | Pace | 102.5 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | 2025-26 | DET 106 @ SAS 121 | SAS |
| 2026-02-23 | 2025-26 | SAS 114 @ DET 103 | SAS |
| 2025-03-25 | 2024-25 | SAS 96 @ DET 122 | DET |
| 2025-02-21 | 2024-25 | DET 125 @ SAS 110 | DET |
| 2024-04-14 | 2023-24 | DET 95 @ SAS 123 | SAS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works