DET
TOR
Detroit Pistons @ Toronto Raptors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
51% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Pistons +6.4.
- Home court: the Raptors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Raptors win 5,090 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Raptors 8th (13.6), Pistons 24th (15.0).
- Strength: the Raptors rank 3rd of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (16.2).
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the Pistons win 4,910 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.2 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 17 or more.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pistons 3rd (30.8%), Raptors 15th (25.7%).
- History: the Pistons won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -0.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 221.1 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · TOR n/a | DET 49% · TOR 51% |
| Fair moneyline | DET +104 · TOR -104 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Raptors 111, Pistons 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Pistons by 17 and Raptors by 17.
Side by side
| DET | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-1 |
| +7.0 5 | Net rating | +3.0 9 |
| 113.2 12 | Offensive rating | 112.4 15 |
| 106.2 2 | Defensive rating | 109.4 7 |
| 54.2% 16 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 15 |
| 51.4% 1 | Opponent eFG% | 53.8% 8 |
| 15.0 24 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 8 |
| 30.8% 3 | Offensive rebound % | 25.7% 15 |
| 35.8% 15 | 3-point % | 35.2% 21 |
| 102.1 19 | Pace | 101.8 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2025-26 | TOR 116 @ DET 127 | DET |
| 2026-03-15 | 2025-26 | DET 108 @ TOR 119 | TOR |
| 2026-02-11 | 2025-26 | DET 113 @ TOR 95 | DET |
| 2025-04-04 | 2024-25 | DET 117 @ TOR 105 | DET |
| 2025-01-11 | 2024-25 | TOR 114 @ DET 123 | DET |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works