DET
UTA
Detroit Pistons @ Utah Jazz
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
73% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.4 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), Jazz 27th (-7.9).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pistons +6.4, Jazz -7.8.
- Simulation: the Pistons win 7,310 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.2 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Home court: the Jazz play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 2,690 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 9 or more.
- Body clock: the Pistons cross 2 time zones.
- Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -7.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 228 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · UTA n/a | DET 73% · UTA 27% |
| Fair moneyline | DET -271 · UTA +271 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Jazz 110, Pistons 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Pistons by 25 and Jazz by 9.
Side by side
| DET | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| +7.0 5 | Net rating | -7.9 27 |
| 113.2 12 | Offensive rating | 111.1 20 |
| 106.2 2 | Defensive rating | 119.0 29 |
| 54.2% 16 | Effective FG% | 53.6% 20 |
| 51.4% 1 | Opponent eFG% | 57.6% 30 |
| 15.0 24 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.8 21 |
| 30.8% 3 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 12 |
| 35.8% 15 | 3-point % | 34.4% 24 |
| 102.1 19 | Pace | 105.6 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-26 | 2025-26 | DET 129 @ UTA 131 | UTA |
| 2025-11-05 | 2025-26 | UTA 103 @ DET 114 | DET |
| 2025-03-03 | 2024-25 | DET 134 @ UTA 106 | DET |
| 2024-12-19 | 2024-25 | UTA 126 @ DET 119 | UTA |
| 2024-01-03 | 2023-24 | DET 148 @ UTA 154 | UTA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works