DET
WAS
Detroit Pistons @ Washington Wizards
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
73% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.2 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- Simulation: the Pistons win 7,270 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.3 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Pistons 5th (+7.2), Wizards 30th (-11.4).
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Home court: the Wizards play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 2,730 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -7.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 226.1 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · WAS n/a | DET 73% · WAS 27% |
| Fair moneyline | DET -266 · WAS +266 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Wizards 109, Pistons 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Pistons by 25 and Wizards by 9.
Side by side
| DET | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| +7.0 5 | Net rating | -10.9 30 |
| 113.2 12 | Offensive rating | 108.2 29 |
| 106.2 2 | Defensive rating | 119.2 30 |
| 54.2% 16 | Effective FG% | 53.5% 21 |
| 51.4% 1 | Opponent eFG% | 55.9% 27 |
| 15.0 24 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 23 |
| 30.8% 3 | Offensive rebound % | 23.9% 22 |
| 35.8% 15 | 3-point % | 35.5% 18 |
| 102.1 19 | Pace | 104.3 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | 2025-26 | DET 117 @ WAS 95 | DET |
| 2026-03-17 | 2025-26 | DET 130 @ WAS 117 | DET |
| 2026-02-05 | 2025-26 | WAS 126 @ DET 117 | WAS |
| 2025-11-10 | 2025-26 | WAS 135 @ DET 137 | DET |
| 2025-03-13 | 2024-25 | WAS 129 @ DET 125 | WAS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works