GSW
ATL
Golden State Warriors @ Atlanta Hawks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Hawks
61% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hawks can win
- The Hawks' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 11th in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 24th.
- Simulation: the Hawks win 6,110 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Hawks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Hawks 7th (13.6), Warriors 27th (15.5).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Hawks +4.2, Warriors -1.8.
Disadvantages Why Hawks may not
- Upset odds: the Warriors win 3,890 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- The Warriors' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 12th in the NBA) meets a Hawks defense that ranks 19th.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hawks lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: the Hawks rank 27th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.18).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Warriors 11th (26.3%), Hawks 20th (24.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -3.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 234.4 |
| Win chance | GSW n/a · ATL n/a | GSW 39% · ATL 61% |
| Fair moneyline | GSW +157 · ATL -157 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hawks 119, Warriors 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Warriors by 13 and Hawks by 21.
Side by side
| GSW | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-3 |
| -0.7 19 | Net rating | +1.2 14 |
| 112.2 16 | Offensive rating | 112.5 14 |
| 112.9 17 | Defensive rating | 111.3 11 |
| 55.0% 12 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 11 |
| 55.6% 24 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 19 |
| 15.5 27 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 7 |
| 26.3% 11 | Offensive rebound % | 24.3% 20 |
| 35.7% 16 | 3-point % | 36.7% 7 |
| 102.3 17 | Pace | 104.3 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | 2025-26 | GSW 110 @ ATL 126 | ATL |
| 2026-01-11 | 2025-26 | ATL 124 @ GSW 111 | ATL |
| 2025-03-22 | 2024-25 | GSW 115 @ ATL 124 | ATL |
| 2024-11-20 | 2024-25 | ATL 97 @ GSW 120 | GSW |
| 2024-02-03 | 2023-24 | GSW 134 @ ATL 141 | ATL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works